Betting.Betfair

With the girls outnumbering the boys seven to four on Strictly Come Dancing, The Contrarian is confident that his last reality TV show tip - on Strictly having a female winner - is as good as won, and it's time to start thinking about the X Factor. He's not sure if a girl is going to win yet, but there's one thing for certain - it won't be current favourite Matt Cardle. Oppose him at 2.86 - here's why... [b]The favourite rarely wins[/b] The first rule of reality TV show betting is to never bet on a favourite and that advice is particularly useful when it comes to the X Factor, as those who backed Rhydian Roberts in the 2007 final, which he went into as the 1.29 frontrunner, learned the hard way. Another fairly staggering trend to be aware of is that in each of the last three series,...